The overall renewable fuel production is expected to reach at least 69 billion litres (55 million tonnes) by 2028 with sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) comprising a portion of this growing output.
This is being achieved through new renewable fuel refineries and the expansion of existing facilities, said the International Air Transport Association (IATA) yesterday.
The expected production has a wide geographic footprint covering North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific, it added.
“The expected production increase is extremely encouraging. Seeing this, we need governments to act to ensure that SAF gets its fair production share.
“That means, in the first instance, production incentives to support aviation’s energy transition.
“And we need continued approval for more diversification of methods and feedstocks available for SAF production,” said IATA director-general Willie Walsh in a statement yesterday.
With these two measures successfully in place, IATA could be confident that the expected 2028 production levels will be realistically aligned with its recently published roadmaps to net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
“That is important as we are counting on SAF to provide about 62 per cent of the carbon mitigation needed in 2050,” he said, adding that trends supporting this optimistic outlook are already visible.
In 2022, SAF production tripled to some 300 million litres (240,000 tonnes) and project announcements for potential SAF producers are rapidly growing, according to the association.
IATA said over 130 relevant renewable fuel projects have been announced by more than 85 producers across 30 countries and each of these projects has either announced the intent or commitment to produce SAF within their wider product slate of renewable fuels.
It noted that typically, there is a three to five-year lag between a project announcement and its commercialisation date and this implies that further renewable fuel capacity until 2030 could still be announced over the following years.
IATA said if renewable energy production reaches 69 billion litres by 2028 as estimated, the trajectory to 100 billion litres (80 million tonnes) by 2030 would be on track, and if just 30 per cent of that is SAF, the industry could achieve 30 billion litres (24 million tonnes) of SAF by 2030.
“Achieving the necessary SAF percentage output from these new and expanding facilities is not a given.
“But with governments the world over agreeing at the ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organisation) to a longterm aspirational goal of net zero by 2050, they now share accountability for aviation’s decarbonisation.
“That means establishing a policy framework to ensure that aviation gets the needed SAF share in renewable energy production,” said Walsh.
The expected production increase is extremely encouraging.
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